Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle

Business cycles ; Interest rates ; Macroeconomics

A new thermal vacuum facility at the Martin Marietta Waterton plant

A new thermal-vacuum facility has been recently completed at the Martin Marietta Waterton plant near Denver, Colorado. The facility was designed, fabricated, installed, and tested as a turn-key project by Pitt-Des Moines Inc. and CVI Inc. The chamber has a 5.49 M by 6.10 M (18 ft by 20 ft) flat floor and a half-cylindrical roof with a diameter of 5.49 M (18 ft). Both ends of the chamber have full cross section doors, with one equipped with translating motors for horizontal motion. The chamber is provided with four 0.91 M (36 inches) cryopumps to obtain an ultimate pressure of 9 x 10(exp -8) Torr (Clean-Dry-Empty). The thermal shroud is designed to operate at a maximum of -179 C (-290 F) with an internal heat input of 316 MJ/Hr (300,000 BTU/Hr) using liquid nitrogen. The shroud is also designed to operate at any temperature between -156 C (-250 F) and 121 C (+250 F) using gaseous nitrogen, and heat or cool at a rate of 1.1 C (2 F) per minute

Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations

Recent developments in macroeconomic theory emphasize that transient economic fluctuations can arise as responses to changes in long run factors -- in particular, technological improvements -- rather than short run factors. This contrasts with the view that short run fluctuations and shifts in long run trends are largely unrelated. We examine empirically the effect of shifts in stochastic trends that are common to several macroeconomic series. Using a linear time series model related to a VAR, we consider first a system with GNP, consumption and investment with a single common stochastic trend; we then examine this system augmented by money and prices and an additional stochastic trend. Our results suggest that movements in the "real" stochastic trend account for one-half to two-thirds of the variation in postwar U.S. GNP.

Testing Long Run Neutrality

Propositions about long run neutrality are at the heart of most macroeconomic models. Yet, since the 1970's when Lucas and Sargent presented powerful critiques of traditional neutrality tests, empirical researchers have made little progress on testing these propositions. In this paper we show that. in spite of the Lucas-Sargent critique. long run neutrality can be tested without specifying a complete model of economic activity. This is possible when the variables are integrated. In this case, permanent shifts in the historical data can be uncovered using VAR methods, and neutrality can be tested when there is a priori knowledge of one of the structural impact multipliers or one of the structural long run multipliers. In most circumstances such a priori knowledge is available. We use this framework to test four long run neutrality propositions: (i) the neutrality of money, (ii) the superneutrality of money. (iii) a vertical long run Phillips curve, and (iv) the Fisher effect. In each application, our a priori knowledge consists of a range of plausible values for the relevant impact and long run multipliers. We find that the U.S. postwar data are consistent with the neutrality of money and a vertical long run Phillips curve. but find evidence against the superneutrality of money and the long run Fisher relation. The sign of the estimated effect of money growth on output depends on the particular identifying assumption used. For a wide range of plausible identifying restrictions, nominal interest rates are found to move less than one-for-one with inflation in the long run.

An Assessment of SeaWiFS and MODIS Ocean Coverage

Ocean coverages of SeaWiFS and MODIS were assessed for three seasons by considering monthly mean values of surface winds speeds and cloud cover. Mean and maximum coverages combined SeaWiFS and MODIS by considering combined coverages for ten-degree increments of the MODIS orbital mean anomaly. From this analysis the mean and maximum combined coverages for SeaWiFS and MODIS were determined for one and four-day periods for spring, summer, and winter seasons. Loss of coverage due to Sun glint and cloud cover were identified for both the individual and combined cases. Our analyses indicate that MODIS will enhance ocean coverage for all three seasons examined. ne combined SeaWiFS/MODIS show an increase of coverage of 42.2% to 48.7% over SeaWiFS alone for the three seasons studied; the increase in maximum one day coverage ranges from 47.5% to 52.0%. The increase in four-day coverage for the combined case ranged from 31.0% to 35.8% for mean coverage and 33.1 % to 39.2% for maximum coverage. We computed meridional distributions of coverages by binning the data into five-degree latitude bands. Our analysis shows a strong seasonal dependence of coverage. In general the meridional analysis indicates that increase in coverages for SeaWiFS/MODIS over SeaWiFS alone are greatest near the solar declination

What ASRS incident data tell about flight crew performance during aircraft malfunctions

This research examined 230 reports in NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System's (ASRS) database to develop a better understanding of factors that can affect flight crew performance when crew are faced with inflight aircraft malfunctions. Each report was placed into one of two categories, based on severity of the malfunction. Report analysis was then conducted to extract information regarding crew procedural issues, crew communications and situational awareness. A comparison of these crew factors across malfunction type was then performed. This comparison revealed a significant difference in ways that crews dealt with serious malfunctions compared to less serious malfunctions. The authors offer recommendations toward improving crew performance when faced with inflight aircraft malfunctions

Using nestedness and species-accumulation analyses to strengthen a conservation plan for littoral forest birds in south-eastern Madagascar

The littoral forests of south-eastern Madagascar are among the most threatened ecosystems on the island. A conservation plan has been developed for the region due to a proposed mining venture. Here, we provide a novel methodology to assess if the planned conservation measures would effectively conserve the bird diversity inhabiting these forests. Bird community composition within 30 littoral forest fragments was quantified with each fragment characterized by measures of fragment area, isolation, and internal habitat complexity. A nestedness and cumulative species–area analysis was conducted to ascertain the contribution of forest fragments of different sizes in capturing the overall bird species richness. Datasets representing the overall and forest-dependent bird assemblages were found to be significantly nested. The pattern of nestedness appeared to be driven by fragment size. However, cumulative species–area analyses showed that the assemblages were imperfectly nested with ten species displaying idiosyncratic distribution patterns. When a modest conservation target was set (the occurrence of a bird species in three or more fragments), the proposed conservation plan would only protect approximately half the species found in the littoral forests. We show that protecting an additional four large patches would mean that the proportion of forest-birds captured in three or more patches would increase to 70%

Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship

Inflation (Finance) ; Unemployment